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第八十八章 费马和帕斯卡的信件(2 / 2)

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帕斯卡直觉地意识到,中断赌博时赌注的分配比例应与当时的输赢状态与双方约定的最终判据之距离有关。比如说,梅雷已经得了8分,距离10分的判据差2分,赌友7分,还差3分到10分。因此,帕斯卡认为需要研究从中断赌博那个“点”开始,如果继续赌博的各种可能性。

为了尽快地解决这个问题,帕斯卡以通信的方式与住在法国南部的费马讨论。

梅雷原来的问题是掷骰子赌“6点”或“4点”的问题,但可以简化成抛硬币的问题:甲乙两人抛硬币,甲赌“正”,乙赌“反”,赢家得1分,各下赌注$10,先到达10分者获取所有赌注。如果赌博在“甲8分、乙7分”时中断,问应该如何分配这$20赌注?

费马回信的分析:“从赌博的中断点出发,还至多需要抛4次硬币来决定甲乙最后的输赢。”

帕斯卡看信:“这4次随机抛丢或产生16种等概率的可能结果,因为“甲赢”需要结果中出现2次“正”,“乙赢”需要结果中出现3次“反”,所以,在16种结果中,有11种是“甲赢”,5种是“乙赢”。换言之,如果赌博没有中断,而是从中断点的状态继续到底的话,可以如此算出甲赢的概率是11/16,乙赢的概率是5/16。赌博的中断使得双方按照这种比例失去了最后赢得全部赌注的机会,但按此比例来分配赌注应该是合理的方法。所以,根据费马的分析思路,甲方应该得$20×11/16=$13.75,乙方则得剩余的,或$20×5/16=$6.25。”

帕斯卡十分赞赏费马思路之清晰,费马所得的结果也验证了帕斯卡自己得到的结论,虽然他用的是完全不一样的方法。

帕斯卡给费马写信也讨论了自己的结果:“解决这个问题的过程中提出了离散随机变量“期望值”的概念。期望值是用概率加权后得到的“期望”的平均值。帕斯卡计算出从甲方的观点,“期望”能得到的赌注分配为$13.75,与费马计算的结果一致。”

期望是概率论中的重要概念,期望值则是概率分布的重要特征之一。它常被用在与赌博相关的计算中。例如,赌场轮盘上有38个数字,每一个数字被选中的概率都是1/38。赌注(比如$1)押在其中一个数字上,如果押中,顾客得到35倍的奖金($35),否则赌注被赌场所得。藉此,我们可以计算顾客“赢”的期望值。

从研究掷骰子开始,帕斯卡不仅仅引入了期望的概念,还发现了帕斯卡三角形(即杨辉三角),虽然杨辉早于帕斯卡好几百年,但是帕斯卡将此三角形与概率、期望、二项式定理、组合公式等等联系在一起,与费马一起为现代概率理论奠定了基础,对数学作出了不凡的贡献。1657年,荷兰科学家惠更斯在帕斯卡和费马工作的基础上,写成了《论赌博中的计算》一书,被认为是关于概率论的最早的系统论着,但人们仍然将概率论的诞生日定为帕斯卡和费马开始通信的那一天——1654年7月29日。

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