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第五百一十章 马尔科夫链(概率与统计)(2 / 2)

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辛钦说:“有些意思,上升到某些哲学意味了。你这样做就是开始考虑相依随机变量序列的规律。”

马尔科夫说:“从中选出了最重要的一类加以研究。这种如同锁链般环环相扣的随机变量序列,其中某个变量各以多大的概率取什么值,完全由它前面的一个变量来决定,而与它更前面的那些变量无关。”

辛钦认为,马尔科夫所建立的概率模型不但具有深刻的哲学意义,而且具有真实的物质背景,在他的工作之前或同时,一些马尔科夫链或更复杂的随机过程的例子已出现在某些人的研究中,只不过这些人没有自觉地认识到这类模型的普遍意义或用精确的数学语言表述出来罢了。

辛钦说:“除了有深刻的哲学意味,还有很多物理方面的不错的解释。比如布朗运动,家族遗传规律,容器中分子扩散使用,传染病感染人数,谣言是散播,原子核中电子跃迁,人口的增长等。”

马尔科夫笑说:“有趣的是,我倒是没有太多的注意有关物理的模型。而是统计了长诗《叶甫盖尼·奥涅金》中元音字母和辅音字母交替变化的规律:这是长诗开头的两句,意为:“我不想取悦骄狂的人生,只希望博得朋友的欣赏。”诗人那火一般的诗篇在数学家那里变成了一条冷冰冰的锁链:在这条锁链上只有两种链环,C代表辅音、代表元音,此处为了使问题简化起见,不仿把两个无音字母算作辅音。马尔科夫分别统计了在C后面出现C和的概率p和1-p,以及在后出现C和的概率q和1-q,把结果与按照俄语拼音规则计算出的结果进行比较,证实了语言文字中随机的从概率的意义上讲,字母序列符合他所建立的概率模型。”

辛钦说:“原来是利用了语言文学方面的材料来说明性质。”

后来,马尔科夫完成了关于链的大数定律的证明之后,马尔科夫又开始在一系列论文中研究链的中心极限定理。

1907年他在《一种不平常的相依试验》中证明了齐次马尔科夫链的渐近正态性;

1908年在《一个链中变量和的概率计算的极限定理推广》中作了进一步的推广;

1910年他发表了重要的论文《成连锁的试验》,在其中证明了两种情况的非齐次马尔科夫链的中心极限定理。与此同时他在一些假定的前提下证明了模型的各态历经性,成为在统计物理中具有重要作用的遍历理论中第一个被严格证明的结果。遍历理论亦称ergodic理论,是奥地利物理学家玻耳兹曼(L. Boltzmann, 1844-1906)于1781年提出来的,其大意是:一个系统必将经过或已经经过其总能量与当时状态相同的另外的任何状态。

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